[JoeSoap]

@Mailman

I switched at the earliest opportunity as this tariff beat the one I was then fixed to. In the five weeks since I switched I have saved around £63 so that's reduced my exit fee net liability to a mere £237 😂. Like yourself, I'll save some more over the next three months, thereby shaving a bit more from the liability should something else come along that catches my eye. Who knows after that? It's all an exercise in numbers really. I've fixed to something I'm happy with and have peace of mind for a couple of years. Might win, might lose, might break evenish. Happy to know where I am with it in any case.

[Mailman]

@JoeSoap

I had not seen The Latest Cornwall Insights Projections

Just reinforces the decision I made today.

Interestingly with my usage kWh mix (and hence £) of just below average electricity and well-below average gas, the price of electricity that I pay is actually more important than gas and the Cornwall data would seem to indicate that I have made as good a decision as I can given all the limitations that exist with clairvoyancy. 😎 Like yourself if I end up being wrong then I cannot blame anyone (nor would I want to). 👍

[JoeSoap]

@Mailman

So it looks like the price cap is currently predicted to rise from July onwards now 🤔

[Andy65]

@Mailman @JoeSoap

I considered the Next Secure Fixed 24mV2 but based on my consumption, it was only 16p cheaper per month than the 12 month version of that tariff. Add the £150 exit fee per fuel and the 'uncertainty' of where prices may or may not go, I went with the Next Secure Fixed 12mV5.

I suspect that going for the 24 month fix may turn out to have been a decent punt, I can't see prices changing so much that it would cover the exit fees, particularly for those with lower consumption and then there's the ever increasing standing charges...

[meldrewreborn]

@JoeSoap
the prices forecast for the next 3 quarters July onwards are all lower than the prices April to June. Whether prices are forecast to rise or fall depends on you starting point. My fix expires in July so I’ve not opted for one of the latest offers. 🤞🤞

[JoeSoap]

Originally Posted by meldrewreborn

@JoeSoap
the prices forecast for the next 3 quarters July onwards are all lower than the prices April to June. Whether prices are forecast to rise or fall depends on you starting point. My fix expires in July so I’ve not opted for one of the latest offers. 🤞🤞

Ah right… gotcha. When the link was brought to my attention as confirmation of getting a new fix being a good choice I thought the forecast had changed in my favour. It may well have done but I’m not au fait with historical predictions. I can now see that the forecast units are slightly lower than mine although the SCs are higher.

[Mailman]

Originally Posted by JoeSoap

@Mailman

So it looks like the price cap is currently predicted to rise from July onwards now 🤔

Just to confirm that the locked-in Q224 price cap = £1690 p.a. (for the new typical usage numbers) and everything thereafter is open to all sorts of external influences.

Cornwall suggest that Q324 price cap =£1559 moving to £1631 in Q424 and £1634 in Q125

Having looked at the Cornwall numbers again I looked at what I personally would be paying pa if I went onto the Next Flex tariff on April 1st (Q224) = £1307 pa rates so 77.33% of the notional cap rates (£1690 pa).

Extrapolating the same 77% cost of my personal usage numbers on the Cornwall figures might give me a personal annualised cost of £1206 in Q324, £1261 in Q424 and £1263 in Q125. The fix I have taken has an annualised cost of £1221.

In a nutshell then taking this fix is only slightly more expensive in Q324 - the period of least usage - with all the other periods being cheaper than the Cornwall forecasts published on March 26th 2024.

Of course this is a very personal summation of my circumstances and my usage. The only certainty I now have is what I will pay if I consumed exactly the same energy pa in the next 2 years.

[JoeSoap]

@Mailman

I see where you’re coming from now. It’s looking good for you as things stand. From memory, as a higher consumer, when I switched I saw that on current predictions my immediate gains up to the end of June would start to be eroded from July onwards and I would gradually end up having paid about as much as if I had chosen to switch from my fix to variable on 1st April. I could see no considerable gains or losses between the two for the foreseeable future. It was good enough for me to make the leap to give me certainty for two years at a price that’s agreeable to me.

My neighbour in an identical house was half way through a two year fix when the price cap went through the roof. Before the government stepped in my DD went to over £500 a month while his was steady at around £100. Oh the pain.