[Mailman]

I'm now within the last 45 'ish days of my my current fixed tariff (Next Winter Support 25) and was unsurprised to see my account going into overdrive wanting me to attend to my account ('It's time to renew your tariff' etc). Listed are the range of tariffs available to me NOW.

Bearing in mind that the forthcoming price cap set to change on April 1st is firming up to be circa 14% lower according to Cornwall Insights the figures quoted for Next Flex and Next Pledge will change come April 1st. Just as interesting will be the movement of fixed-tariff products from this date. I would have thought that post April 1st these products will possibly move downwards as well - we shall see.

I'm quite clear that no decision needs to be made until the forthcoming announcement of the April price cap. That decision will almost certainly be a 'wait and see' approach. Should there be some fixed-price tariffs that appear between now and April that reflect the anticipated general easing of energy costs I will look at them if they appear. Otherwise I may decide to do nothing and just automatically drop onto Next Flex OR go with Next Pledge.

But almost certainly I'll not be making any decisions until the end of March unless it is clear that world affairs take another downward rapid spiral in which case I'd grab a fix and fast as I could.

[meldrewreborn]

@Mailman

Absolutely spot on. And Cornwall are factoring another reduction in July 2024. See link below - it seems to be completely up to date so perhaps continually reflecting the latest market changes.

There is no need to grab an fix now, unless you crave price certainty above total likely cost.

Predictions and Insights into the Default Tariff Cap - Cornwall Insight (cornwall-insight.com)

Predictions and Insights into the Default Tariff Cap - Cornwall Insight (cornwall-insight.com)

[meldrewreborn]

@Mailman

Also the forecast price changes are not the same for gas and electricity - much bigger reduction on gas than electricity.. So customers need to factor in their own fuel mix to assess what the future holds.

Also reducing gas prices changes the economics of my ongoing "upgrade to new boiler" debate. The lower the cost of gas the less benefit I get from changing to a new boiler. 😀

[JoeSoap]

@Mailman

The application of exit fees, even if you don't switch supplier, to most new Eon Next fixed tariffs has made the switching tariff decision a lot more tricky. My current tariff doesn't end until June but I can switch tariff without penalty as long as I don't switch supplier. I have a 'Special Offer' in my online account and it's a two year fix that would save me almost £40 per month over the two year period. Had I never heard of Cornwall Insight I may well have switched to it by now. The prediction that energy prices are going to fall is stopping me switching to anything that has exit fees totalling £300.

There is a No Exit Fee tariff available to me right now that would potentially save a few pounds per month (averaged over a year) but to me it's not worth the hassle of switching to it for a few relatively warmer months and then potentially having to request a smart meter tariff update with all the trouble that can bring.

I'm with you for the time being and going to sit tight for a while and hope I'm not blindsided by swift energy price hikes.

[meldrewreborn]

@JoeSoap

Before 2019 I'd always switched from one supplier to another for fixed deals with little or no exit charges. If fact I don't recall paying an exit fee ever as I used to see the contracts out.

After that I've mainly been on the default price capped tariffs , but did switch to a fixed tariff for gas in July 22 (with EDF) - a 2 year fixed deal. But I didn't anticipate the Government's EPG and eventually switched back to variable and paid a fee to exit. I fully accept that going into a fixed deal carries risks - its only in hindsight that one can fully decipher whether the fix was a good move or not.

The old saying in the stock market is don't try to catch a falling knife - which is buying when a stock is going down in the hope that it will rebound handsomely. In Energy markets you will have noticed an extreme reluctance to offer fixed deal when prices were rising, but now that prices are falling fixed deals are becoming more common. We must never forget that energy companies want to make money for their shareholders, not to enrich their customers. No every deal is a good one for the customer.

[meldrewreborn]

@Mailman @JoeSoap

The Cornwall Insight prediction for the mythical average customer is for a reduction in April of of more than 15%, by July the reduction compared to January 2024 will be 24%, and even after a price rise in October will still be down more than 20% from today.

[meldrewreborn]

It used to be the case (pre 2020) that the default tariff complying with the OFGEM price cap was a high rate to be actively avoided. Fixed price tariffs could easily save £150 per fuel. But those were the days with multiple new entrants to the market offering good deals. Not all were entirely new - some had been around for 10 years or more. But the energy market disruption stemming from Russia's invasion of Ukraine swept them away, largely because they hadn't bought forward energy supplies, but had contracted with customers at fixed prices that were no longer viable.

[JoeSoap]

Originally Posted by meldrewreborn

Before 2019 I'd always switched from one supplier to another for fixed deals with little or no exit charges. If fact I don't recall paying an exit fee ever as I used to see the contracts out.

Same for me really. I used to look on comparison sites near the end of my current contract and normally pick what I thought was the cheapest 1 year fix with one of the bigger suppliers. Customer satisfaction ratings would also play some part in my decision. I would occasionally switch mid-contract if I was advised of a cheaper deal by my supplier.