It is now common for businesses to issue statements to either warn of price increases whether justifiable or not, induce buying by scare stories etc. If it's well publicised that for example, the average UK household energy bill could hit £5000 a year next April, I would find it difficult to believe that it wouldn't have any effect on wholesale prices.
Do I believe that the prices we are now seeing for energy is just down to wholesale prices as as result of events in Ukraine? No I don't. There's the ineptitude of OFGEM for example and as we're on the eon-next forum, I'll drag them into it (I'm going off tangent I know).
So what about eon-next, you know as well as I do how many posts are added every day on here because customers tariffs have increased but it hasn't changed on their IHD, imagine how many haven't even noticed. Why does it happen, well it's obvious isn't it?
Now if OFGEM actually did their job, they would dictate that if a customers tariff increases and they're on a smart meter, if the IHD does not show the correct tariff within 12 hours of the increase (I'm being overly generous), then eon-next (or whoever) can only charge the customer what the IHD shows until it is corrected.
So I haven't answered your question with facts because as I said, it's just my opinion.