[meldrewreborn]

@Mailman

The figures you quoted from the Government are ex VAT. The Gas standing charge for example is likely to be 28.49 p per day (£103.97 per annum) when suppliers actually publish their standard variable rates and this figure applies to all regions unlike that for electricity. So to me, the OFGEM standing charges published at the end of August and applying from 1 October 2022 will be maintained. On dual fuel direct debit the standing charges are up from the April levels by about £8 per annum (depending on region).

My point was that the price caps have never applied to fixed price tariffs and some of the fixes I have read about had standing charges much higher than those in the price cap of whatever date.

[meldrewreborn]

@Johnh1995

Energy consumption for heating of space and water is really about heat loss. We pump in more energy to replace that that we’ve used (hot water) or lost (space heating). The bigger the property, the larger are the floor, wall and loft dimensions so there is more structure to lose heat through. The EPC system for measuring a property’s efficiency has a sound methodology but is subject to a great many assumptions about materials used, and the people doing the surveys have skills and experience of wildly different levels.
I’ve seen blocks of identical flats having ratings covering 3 bands where everything (including the boilers) are the same. But the EPC (if the property has one) can provide a useful starting point. Is the loft insulated, are the walls and floors (yes!) insulated, is there double or triple glazing, are the doors and windows airtight or draughty? Is the gas boiler the most efficient?
Then there are the people that live in the property. Are they guzzlers or frugal, how many are there, how many children, what devices are used, and what is their heating expectation? What is their income and does the cost of energy really oblige them to economise? How is the home occupied - all day or just early morning, evening and weekends? Do the occupants leave the windows and doors open too much? In the winter months one consolation from using a lot of electricity on devices is that inadvertently you are part heating the home, lowering gas consumption if that is the normal heating fuel. A winter holiday is great for reducing winter home heating.
I’ve posted before that I live in a well-insulated large extended semi. My electricity consumption is below the OFGEM average level but my Gas is about 40% above, even though I’ve a solar thermal panel that provides about 3,000 kWh of heated water in the summer months. I have my readings going back to 2005. The biggest factor is that while my electricity consumption is fairly stable and regular over time, the gas consumption varies considerably according to how sunny the summer is, and how cold the winter is. We’re here all the time, and our thermostat varies the temperature in 6 different time periods per day. As consumption is linked directly to replacing heat lost, it follows that the higher the inside temperature the greater the heat lost. Therefore there is no point in heating the home at night, if you’re tucked up in bed you don’t need the home to be warm. The same if you go out – turn the heating down. The idea that it’s better to keep the home warm all the time, because letting it lose heat requires even more heat to get it warm again, is a gigantic myth.

My boiler isn't the most efficient (its 34 years old, good in the day but not so much now) and I might save circa £350 per year at the latest fixed prices (for me) if I changed to a more efficient model. However, a new boiler would cost circa £3,000, so the payback is too long and the uncertainties on future gas pricing too great to go ahead. Before the price increases the payback was even longer, so it never got beyond a vague thought then.

[meldrewreborn]

@silverfox55

"about 15704" - nothing at all like a bit of false precision is there?😉

[meldrewreborn]

@Mailman

Further to my post above I'm now not so convinced that the figures in the government factsheet are ex VAT.

Ofgem said in their press release that average unit prices (inc VAT) were 52p and 15p for the two fuels.

The government says the new price cap prices will be (VAT inc) 34p and 10.3p.

The reduction then is simple 18p and 4.7p respectively.

But the reduction to be applied to fixed tariffs given in the government is 17p and 4.2p respectively (but it doesn't say Vat inclusive. So are fixed tariffs getting a lower price reduction?

[Mailman]

Originally Posted by meldrewreborn

@Mailman

Further to my post above I'm now not so convinced that the figures in the government factsheet are ex VAT.

Ofgem said in their press release that average unit prices (inc VAT) were 52p and 15p for the two fuels.

The government says the new price cap prices will be (VAT inc) 34p and 10.3p.

The reduction then is simple 18p and 4.7p respectively.

But the reduction to be applied to fixed tariffs given in the government is 17p and 4.2p respectively (but it doesn't say Vat inclusive. So are fixed tariffs getting a lower price reduction?

Good point - although most companies I suspect inc Eon Next quote their tariffs (inc VAT). Certainly on my unit tariff and SC details of v7 and v20 (on my account) they quote (VAT inc).

My point was that the price caps have never applied to fixed price tariffs and some of the fixes I have read about had standing charges much higher than those in the price cap of whatever date.

The only thing I can state with any degree of certainty is that the SC tariffs for the fixed tariffs I performed calculations for (V17-V20), were all the same (48.91p/day electric and 27.22 p/day gas) and these are all VAT inclusive.

The other thing I can also say is that the finer details (such as your point) need to be promulgated to the customer and not just 'you don't need to do anything - the supplier will do it all for you'. How can you tell if the supplier has billed you correctly if you don't have all the information to hand. For example we still don't know if there is a unit floor after any reductions are applied to some/all fixed tariffs.

Another day or two may bring more clarity on the finer detail of what it all means particularly those on fixed tariffs.

[Mailman]

Updated information coming through from M Lewis it seems, opening post now amended.

[meldrewreborn]

@Mailman

Confusion reigns. I've just read an email from MSE. He's now saying his reading of the government rules is that those on fixes will only get reductions to the level of the variable EPG and no further. see here:

Martin Lewis: Is it time to fix your energy or stay on the price cap? (moneysavingexpert.com)

This is in stark contrast to the Government's earlier energy bills factsheet number 8. in effect it means that unless you've a cheap fix from long ago you'l be paying the new EPG rates going forward. But energy suppliers can't issue any new rates yet because the rules from government have not been finalised. What a mess!

[Mailman]

@meldrewreborn

I amended my first post yesterday and reproduce the EDIT in this post

****Edit: Looks like there is news on fixes such as this meaning there appears to be information coming from M Lewis indicating that there is indeed a 'floor' such that unit rates would not be allowed to go lower than the announced SVT if the EPG reductions are applied to your current fixed tariff

This has now been confirmed by the Updated BEIS factsheet***

Only fixes currently lower than the announced SVT rates for 1st October would be worthwhile staying on. Everything else means that you are better off going to the SVT on October 1st (or immediately if your current fix is higher than the current SVT)

Just checking that this information from Mr Lewis is indeed the correct situation as this information is seemingly changing daily. HMG have now updated.

If the ML information turns out to be gospel, I shall be reverting to the SVT/EPG cap on October 1st rather than staying on v18 Online as my gas tariff after the reductions would the match the cap (rather than being slightly cheaper) and my electricity tariff would be slightly more expensive.

Why the fact sheet that HMG pushed out on September 8th has not yet been updated with this information is indeed perplexing? What we don't know is whether ML's meeting with the CEO's of the energy suppliers had government representation (at a senior civil servant level at the very least). We shall see soon I expect.

[TangledWeb]

Originally Posted by Mailman

I've worked out a few calculations using a spreadsheet to work out what will happen if the energy price guarantee unit rate (per kWh) reductions (17p and 4.2p for E and G respectively) are applied in full to fixed tariffs that people may be on. I've restricted this to the Online Next v ? Direct Debit Tariffs and compared them to the Next Flex Tariff (the SVT) that we should see from October 1st. I've used my own anticipated yearly usage of 2500 kWh (E) and 6800 kWh (G), kept the same standing charges and unit rates for my region (Northern). Just the total figures I've calculated plus an indication of the unit rates (E/G) after any reductions, using these assumptions:

SVT i.e Next Flex from October 1st (34p/10.3p) = £1828.27 yeary total

Fixed Online v 17 from October 1st (32.96p/8.55p) = £1583.92 yearly total

Fixed Online v 18 from October 1st (34.83p/9.01p) = £1762.05 yearly total

Fixed Online v 19 from October 1st (42.15p/10.77p) = £2063.98 yearly total

Fixed Online v 20 from October 1st (49.34p/12.51p) = £2362.05 yearly total

The one thing anybody should take from this is that if you are currently on v19 (or later), you should drop onto the Next Flex tariff immediately. If you have set it up for a later date then cancel it and drop onto the SVT on October 1st or possibly earlier depending on your current tariff.

If you are currently on v17 (or lower) don't move off it until the end date, unless other information resolves the 'floor' issue.
If on v18 (or about to move onto it) the decision is marginal but, it should prove slightly cheaper than SVT so stay on it/ don't cancel.

Hope this has helped those deliberating on staying on their fixes or moving to the SVT (Next Flex) tariff.

Of course things can change so take this information with a huge pinch of salt.

****Edit: Looks like there is news on fixes such as this meaning there appears to be information coming from M Lewis indicating that there is indeed a 'floor' such that unit rates would not be allowed to go lower than the announced SVT if the EPG reductions are applied to your current fixed tariff***

If this is the case, then only fixes currently lower than the announced SVT rates for 1st October would be worthwhile staying on. Everything else means that you are better off going to the SVT on October 1st (or immediately if your current fix is higher than the current SVT)

It appears SVT tariff charges for both standing charge & unit rate has increased significantly over the past day or so - was given the following rates by Eon earlier today.

All prices in pence & inc VAT.

E.on Next Flex tariff(s?) 15/11

FLEXDIRECTDEBIT-21-07-20
Std Chg kWh
E: 43.26 51.32
G: 28.48 14.75

FLEXRECIPTOFBILLS-21-07-20
Std Chg kWh
E: 49.14 54.06
G: 33.54 15.54

[Not sure what the second tariff is - maybe price if not paid by direct debit? - was sent both at the same time as but only Next Flex was referred to]

For Reference SVT rates 11/9
FLEXDIRECTDEBIT-21-07-20
Std Chg kWh
E: 42.24 28.02
G: 27.22 7.34

These tariff rates *do not* take into account the 1 Oct price cap increase, they will still go up.

When asked about the effect of the EPG was told ALL tariffs will be revised in line with Gov't announcement of 8 Sept.

Was just wondering what your thoughts are regarding changing from fixes to the SVT now given these price increases 2+ weeks before to the price cap increase is due to come into effect.

Dave

[JoeSoap]

@TangledWeb

Looks to me that they just haven't updated the prices yet with respect to the new Oct price cap. Things are taking time to calculate, I guess.