To fix or not?

  • Mandy234's Avatar
    Level 2
    Climate positive v5 tariff ends 16/09. Offered fix of £488pm or flexible £274pm. Can anyone help me with how much my payments could increase in oct and Jan if I stay on variable?
  • 14 Replies

  • Best Answer

    Andy65's Avatar
    Level 32
    Best Answer
    Hi @Mandy234

    I think the last article I read, and I may be wrong because I can't find it now 🙄, was that the variable cap was forecast to increase by 70% in October. If that's right and hopefully someone will correct me if it isn't, that would take the variable for you to about £465. It's almost certain to increase again in January, a figure of 10% or just under comes to mind.

    It's a gamble but the fixed tariff you're being offered might be worth considering if the numbers I've quoted are right.
  • meldrewreborn's Avatar
    Level 53
    @Mandy234

    i recently calculated 16p per unit for gas and 50p per unit for gas. Everybody’s fuel usage and mix of fuels is different and OFGEM haven’t announced their rates yet. Also bear in mind whether you can leave the fix without penalty, which might mean you can fix and then switch to flex, but if you go for flex and want to change the fix might not be available.
    Current Eon Next and EDF customer, ex Zog and Symbio. Don't think dual fuel saves money and don't like smart meters. Chronologically Gifted
  • Mandy234's Avatar
    Level 2
    Thanks for replies.

    it’s maybe not worth the gamble on variable then. There’s no penalty to leave the fix so probably that’s the best option.
  • meldrewreborn's Avatar
    Level 53
    There are no guarantees but fixing with the option to drop it if prices elsewhere are lower seems a sound strategy to me.
  • JoeSoap's Avatar
    Level 33
    Quote Originally Posted by Andy65 View Post
    Hi @Mandy234

    I think the last article I read, and I may be wrong because I can't find it now 🙄, was that the variable cap was forecast to increase by 70% in October. If that's right and hopefully someone will correct me if it isn't, that would take the variable for you to about £465. It's almost certain to increase again in January, a figure of 10% or just under comes to mind.

    It's a gamble but the fixed tariff you're being offered might be worth considering if the numbers I've quoted are right.

    I think you may be referring to what I posted on another thread.

    According to the moneysavingexpert website the latest predictions from Cornwall Insight on 2 Aug for the change in dual-fuel direct debit cap are...

    UP 70% in Oct.
    UP 8% in Jan.
    UP 3% in Apr.
    DOWN 4% in Jul.

    Just predictions of course but apparently Cornwall Insight have a good track record.

    MSE is predicting that we will pay 72% above the current price cap over the next year based on the price rise predictions so suggests if you can find a fix at 70% or lower then it's worth CONSIDERING. Even up to 75% if you strongly value budgeting certainty.

    The only existing customer fixed tariff they thought was worth considering on 2 Aug was Eon Next Online v17 which I think they put at 67% above current price cap over the next year for typical users. I signed up to it on that day at Gas 12.87p/kWh and 27.22/day... and Elec 52.11p/kWh and 37.92p/day.

    That deal was replaced by v18 by 3 Aug but they still publish that as worth considering at 73% above. I can't find what the rates on this tariff are but perhaps someone can add them on this thread to help people see where things are heading.

    ​​​​​​​There are still no exit fees on this tariff so that helps.

    I hope this helps people decide. It's very difficult.
  • JoeSoap's Avatar
    Level 33
    From the same sources as my previous post the current predictions as of today are....

    Oct... UP 82%
    Jan... UP 19%
    Apr... UP 4%
    Jul... DOWN 14%

    ​​​​​​​Unbelievable.
    Last edited by JoeSoap; 09-08-22 at 13:55. Reason: Tidied-up text. No meaningful amendments made.
  • JoeSoap's Avatar
    Level 33
    From what I just found on-line, the current Next Online v18 rates for my area are Elec... 54.01p/kWh and 37.92p/day. Gas 13.33p/kWh and 27.22p/day. These rates per kWh are up approx. 3.6% on v17 on offer a week ago but I wouldn't be surprised if they look like a good deal this time tomorrow.
  • meldrewreborn's Avatar
    Level 53
    @JoeSoap

    The problem with average figures is that we're not average. Many people are all electric and have no Gas. And the proportion of use if you have both fuels isn't average either. I use less than the average for electricity and much more than the average of gas. Therefore increases in the price of gas are the most significant element for me.

    Cornwall are saying £2098.53 for electricity based on 2,900 kWh per annum for q1 2023, and £2167.95 for 12,000 kWh of gas.

    If standing charges are unchanged this means 67p per unit of electricity and 17p per unit for gas (subject to some regional variation)

    You pays your money and you takes your chance.
  • meldrewreborn's Avatar
    Level 53
    But remember the old Chinese proverb from Confucius "He who sit on fence liable rip his trousers and get splinters".

    Grab a fix while you can if you want to fix.

    Ed Davey, leader of the Liberal Dims, called on the Government today to scrap any increases. He was once an Energy Minister, how on earth does he think that can be implemented?